OCS Research Paper · Preprint · Paper C (observational campaign)

A Multi-Messenger Technosignature and Anomaly-Detection Campaign for Omega Centauri

Tim Swanson — The Omega Centauri Society / Post Oak Labs · [email protected]

Draft v1.2, last revised 2026-07-23 · companion to The Macro Transcension Hypothesis (Swanson 2026) · prepared for omegacentauri.me · HYPOTHESIS-AGNOSTIC CAMPAIGN — every program is conventional astrophysics first

⬇ PDF ↔ Companion hypothesis paper (MTH) ↔ Review of the inward-migration family ↔ Migration economics ↔ Paper E — engineering & adjudication References Decision tree
Abstract

Omega Centauri (NGC 5139), the most massive Galactic globular cluster and the probable stripped nucleus of an accreted dwarf galaxy, presents a unique conjunction of observational circumstances: the strongest current candidate for an intermediate-mass black hole (IMBH) in the Galaxy, anchored by seven stars moving above the local escape velocity (Häberle et al. 2024a); a formally unresolved factor-of-several tension between kinematic lower bounds (≥8,200 M) and a pulsar-timing upper bound (≲6,000 M; Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025); complete electromagnetic silence to the deepest radio and infrared limits ever placed on a globular cluster core (Mahida et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2025); and a southern declination optimal for the newest southern-hemisphere facilities. No dedicated technosignature search of ω Cen has ever been conducted at any wavelength. We present a coordinated, hypothesis-agnostic, multi-messenger campaign of eight instrument-matched programs (enumerated in Section 1) spanning infrared imaging, radio timing and SETI, astrometry, gravitational waves, neutrinos, gamma rays, the optical time domain, and archival channels, addressing conventional astrophysics (IMBH reality, mass, and spin; cluster dynamics) and technosignature hypotheses with the same data. For each program we state quantitative sensitivities, time requests, decision thresholds, and explicit falsification criteria, including negative results: direct astrometric acceleration detection of the fast stars is below 1σ at nominal parameters before ~2040, so the decision-grade astrometry routes through photocentric-wander and reference-frame measurements instead. Total cost is ≲ US$7M over 2026–2035, most of it archival analysis and piggyback observing; the decisive mass and spin measurements arrive as by-products of planned LISA mission science. Every null result constrains conventional astrophysics, and no anomaly claim advances without confirmation from at least two independent messengers; under realistic outcomes the campaign adjudicates the astrophysical hypotheses, while the technosignature hypothesis is constrained only along specific low-probability branches.

Keywords: Omega Centauri · NGC 5139 · intermediate-mass black holes · technosignatures · SETI · multi-messenger astronomy · millisecond pulsars · gravitational waves · neutrino astronomy

Contents
  1. Introduction
  2. The target and the constraint landscape
  3. Program 1: JWST infrared accretion and waste-heat limits
  4. Program 2: Radio — deep imaging, narrowband SETI, and pulsar timing
  5. Program 3: Astrometry — HST, Gaia DR4, Roman, and ELT/MICADO
  6. Program 4: The LISA forecast
  7. Program 5: KM3NeT/ARCA neutrino monitoring
  8. Program 6: Gamma rays — Fermi-LAT archival and CTAO-South
  9. Program 7: Optical/IR time domain — Rubin/LSST and archival anomalies
  10. Program 8: Supplementary archival channels
  11. Coordination, joint statistics, and data policy
  12. Cost and timeline
  13. The decision structure through 2040
  14. Conclusion
  15. References

1. Introduction

1.1 Why Omega Centauri, and why now

Three independent developments between 2024 and 2026 have transformed Omega Centauri (ω Centauri, NGC 5139) from one interesting globular cluster among many into arguably the single best-posed multi-messenger target in the Galaxy outside the Galactic Centre.

First, the IMBH candidacy became concrete. Häberle et al. (2024a), using a proper-motion catalogue of 1.4 million stars built from over 500 HST epochs (Häberle et al. 2024b), identified seven stars within 3 arcsec of the cluster centre moving faster than the local escape velocity — stars that require a bound central mass of ≥8,200 M from their velocities alone, and ≥21,100 M at 99 per cent confidence when acceleration limits are included. Independent N-body modelling finds a best-fitting in-situ-grown IMBH of ~4.7–5.1×104 M (González Prieto et al. 2025). Against this, a joint analysis of stellar kinematics and millisecond-pulsar (MSP) timing places a 3σ upper limit of ~6×103 M on any central point mass, favouring instead an extended ≈2–3×105 M component of stellar remnants (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025). The constraints are formally inconsistent under their stated assumptions. A factor-of-several disagreement between two mature measurement techniques, centred on the nearest IMBH candidate in the sky, is the situation that focused observational campaigns exist to resolve.

Second, the electromagnetic silence became quantitative. The deepest radio observation ever made of a globular cluster (~170 h with ATCA, reaching 1.1 μJy beam−1 rms) detects nothing at any proposed cluster centre, bounding the accretion efficiency of a putative IMBH at ≲4×10−3 of the Bondi rate (Mahida et al. 2026), extending two decades of radio non-detections of globular-cluster IMBHs (Strader et al. 2012; Tremou et al. 2018). JWST NIRCam and MIRI photometry of the central field likewise finds no source with the spectral energy distribution of an accreting IMBH (Chen et al. 2025). Whatever sits at the centre of ω Cen is dark to a depth that is a scientific result in its own right.

Third, the instrument landscape shifted decisively in the campaign's favour. Within an eighteen-month window centred on this writing: the Vera C. Rubin Observatory began science observations in late 2025 (the Pre-LSST period), with the ten-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) formally begun on 2026 June 30 (Ivezić et al. 2019); the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope completed construction, with launch announced for 2026 August 30 (launch dates can move; we quote the announced date once and do not repeat the hedge) (Sanderson et al. 2019); Gaia Data Release 4, with a 5.5-year astrometric baseline, is confirmed for 2026 December 2 (Gaia Collaboration 2016); KM3NeT/ARCA reached 51 of 230 planned detection units with real-time alerts entering commissioning (Adrián-Martínez et al. 2016; KM3NeT Collaboration 2025); the first telescopes of CTAO-South are arriving at Paranal (CTA Consortium 2019); SKA-Mid is assembling toward 2029 science verification (Braun et al. 2019); ELT first light is scheduled for 2029 (Davies et al. 2021); and LISA, formally adopted by ESA in January 2024, is in hardware development for a 2035 launch (Colpi et al. 2024). Nearly every facility on this list is southern-hemisphere or all-sky; ω Cen, at declination −47.5°, sits in the sweet spot of all of them. A campaign organized now can ride this entire wave at marginal cost.

1.2 The technosignature rationale

This paper is the observational companion to a speculative hypothesis paper (Swanson 2026, hereafter Paper A), which argues that rapidly spinning massive black holes in dense old stellar systems are thermodynamic attractors for hypothetical computation-optimizing civilizations, and that ω Cen is the most accessible system satisfying the resulting selection criteria. We neither assume nor argue for that hypothesis here. The campaign is designed to be hypothesis-agnostic in the specific sense that every observation in it is independently justified by conventional astrophysics: IMBH demographics (Greene et al. 2020), cluster dynamics, pulsar timing, accretion physics at the lowest Eddington ratios, and EMRI astrophysics (Amaro-Seoane 2018). The technosignature dimension adds analysis channels (narrowband drift searches, burst-coincidence triggers, anomaly statistics) to data that would be taken anyway, in the cost-effective tradition of commensal SETI (Tarter 2001; Wright et al. 2022; Lacki & DiKerby 2025).

Three considerations nevertheless justify making the technosignature dimension explicit rather than incidental. First, globular clusters are almost entirely unexplored SETI territory: the first dedicated globular-cluster survey, a FAST pilot of five northern clusters, was published only this year and could not observe ω Cen from FAST's latitude (Huang et al. 2026). Second, ω Cen is a privileged target on entirely generic arguments: 107 stars of age 12.08 Gyr (0.75 Gyr spread; systematics dominate the mean; Clontz et al. 2024) in a beam a few arcminutes across, a possible IMBH, and (as the probable nucleus of an accreted dwarf; Hilker & Richtler 2000; Ibata et al. 2019) an independent galactic chemical-evolution history, so that any ETI prior that weights stellar age and number density at all concentrates sharply here. Third, the high-energy technosignature channels (neutrino bursts from hypothetical black-hole-based computation; Dvali & Osmanov 2023) happen to be testable at ω Cen essentially for free, because the cluster's declination makes it an up-going source for the Mediterranean neutrino telescopes. Where Paper A's specific predictions sharpen a test, we say so explicitly and label the dependence; readers uninterested in that hypothesis may strike those sentences without loss to the campaign.

1.3 Design principles

Five principles govern the campaign design, and we state them up front because they discipline everything that follows.

(i) Dual-use data. Every observing program must produce publishable conventional astrophysics on its own; the technosignature analysis is a parallel pipeline on the same photons (or neutrinos, or strain data), never a dedicated expenditure that a null result would waste.

(ii) Honest sensitivity accounting. Where a measurement cannot work at nominal parameters, we say so quantitatively. Section 5 demonstrates this standard: the direct acceleration test on the fast stars, superficially the most natural follow-up to Häberle et al. (2024a), is below 1σ before ~2040 for plausible masses, and we restructure the astrometric program accordingly.

(iii) Two-messenger adjudication. No anomaly claim survives on one channel. Every positive trigger (a neutrino multiplet, a narrowband line, an infrared transient) must specify in advance which independent channel confirms or kills it, with combined significance assessed by pre-registered methods (Section 11).

(iv) Pre-registered thresholds. Detection and falsification thresholds are stated numerically before the data arrive (Tables 3 and 4), in the tradition that a test postponed until after the data are seen is not a test.

(v) Parasitism on funded science. The decisive measurements (IMBH reality, mass, and spin) will be made by LISA as part of its core science program whether or not anyone organizes a campaign (Colpi et al. 2024; Babak et al. 2017). The campaign's job is to ensure that when those numbers arrive, the contextual data (timing, astrometry, electromagnetic limits, high-energy monitoring) already exist to interpret them.

1.4 Structure of this paper

Section 2 reviews the target and the present constraint landscape. Sections 3–10 present the eight programs, each with science case, technical implementation, sensitivity estimates, and decision criteria. Section 11 describes cross-program coordination, alert protocols, and joint statistics. Section 12 presents costing and timeline. Section 13 assembles the decision tree through 2040. Section 14 concludes.

2. The target and the constraint landscape

2.1 Adopted parameters

Table 1 collects the parameters adopted throughout. We use the oMEGACat kinematic distance of 5.49 ± 0.06 kpc (Häberle et al. 2025), consistent within systematics with the Gaia EDR3 parallax distance (Soltis et al. 2021) and the combined-catalogue value (Baumgardt & Vasiliev 2021). At this distance 1″ subtends 0.0266 pc, so the entire fast-star region (r < 3″) fits within 0.08 pc, and the cluster core (rc ≈ 2.4′) within ~4 pc.

Table 1. Adopted parameters for ω Centauri (NGC 5139).
QuantityValueSource
Distance5.49 ± 0.06 kpcHäberle et al. (2025)
Cluster mass≈ 4×106 MBaumgardt & Hilker (2018)
Stellar count~107Baumgardt & Hilker (2018)
Mean stellar age12.08 Gyr (0.75 Gyr spread; systematics dominate)Clontz et al. (2024)
Originstripped dwarf-galaxy nucleusHilker & Richtler (2000); Ibata et al. (2019)
Kinematic centre (J2000)RA 13h26m47.24s, Dec −47°28′46.5″ (±0.1″)Häberle et al. (2024a)
Known millisecond pulsars19Dai et al. (2020); Chen et al. (2023); Colomí i Bernadich et al. (2026)
Central γ-ray source4FGL J1326.7−4729 (MSP ensemble)Dai et al. (2020, 2023)
Angular scale1″ = 0.0266 pc

2.2 The mass tension

Table 2 and Figure 1 summarize the central-mass constraints. Two features matter for campaign design. First, the disagreement is not marginal: the velocity-only kinematic lower bound (8,200 M) exceeds the pulsar-timing point-mass upper bound (6,000 M, 3σ) outright, and the acceleration-informed lower bound (21,100 M) exceeds it by a factor of 3.5. At least one analysis is wrong, or incomplete, in an instructive way — for instance through the radial distribution assumed for the MSPs, the foreground/membership treatment of the fast stars, or the possibility that the central mass is genuinely extended (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025; Zocchi et al. 2019; Breen & Heggie 2013). Second, the tension is resolvable on a known schedule: more pulsars and longer timing baselines tighten the upper bound as roughly 1/√(Npsr T2) (Section 4); Roman and Gaia DR4 sharpen the astrometric frame within two years (Section 5); and LISA, if a compact-object inspiral is caught, measures the mass to ~0.1 per cent (Babak et al. 2017).

Table 2. Current constraints on the central dark mass of ω Cen (cf. Paper A, Table 2).
ConstraintValueMethod / source
Lower bound (velocities only)≥ 8,200 M7 fast stars, HST proper motions (Häberle et al. 2024a)
Lower bound (with accelerations)≥ 21,100 M (99%)same stars, acceleration limits (Häberle et al. 2024a)
N-body growth models~4.7–5.1×104 Mcluster-evolution simulations (González Prieto et al. 2025)
Upper bound (point mass)< 6×103 M (3σ)stellar kinematics + MSP timing (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025)
Favoured alternativeextended 2–3×105 Msame analysis (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025)
Historical upper limits≲ 104 M (model-dep.)HST proper motions (van der Marel & Anderson 2010); see also Noyola et al. (2008); Zocchi et al. (2019)
3,0006,000 8,20021,100 49,0002×10⁵ M• (M☉, logarithmic axis) excluded by both point-mass upper limit, 3σ (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025) lower bound, velocities (Häberle et al. 2024a) lower bound, w/ accel. (99%) N-body best fit (González Prieto et al. 2025) extended remnant component (not a point mass)
Figure 1. The central-mass constraint landscape (logarithmic mass axis). The pulsar-timing point-mass upper limit and the fast-star kinematic lower bounds leave no allowed point mass: at least one constraint must yield. The exclusions are not symmetric: the timing limit applies to a point mass, while the fast-star bounds apply to any bound central mass interior to the fast-star orbits, so an extended remnant component evades the former but not the latter. The campaign is structured to determine which constraint yields, on a known schedule, using instruments that share no dominant systematics.

2.3 Three hypotheses, fixed in advance

Following Paper A we carry three competing hypotheses through every program:

H0 (gas-starved IMBH or near-IMBH). A genuine central point mass in the ~104 M range exists and is silent for the ordinary reason: a relaxed, gas-poor, 12-Gyr-old cluster supplies essentially nothing to accrete. Recent survival analyses find that IMBHs formed early in dense clusters are plausibly retained to the present day in ω Cen-like hosts, supporting the prior on this branch (Martinez et al. 2026). Default and most parsimonious if the kinematic bounds hold.
H1 (extended remnant component). No IMBH; the central mass is a spatially extended cluster of stellar remnants (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025; Breen & Heggie 2013; Zocchi et al. 2019). Default and most parsimonious if the timing bound holds.
H2 (anomalous/managed system). A central IMBH whose observational properties are shaped by technology, per Paper A. Carries a low prior; becomes interesting only through conjunctions that H0 and H1 jointly fail to explain (e.g. near-extremal spin on a gas-starved hole; repeated coincident multi-messenger bursts; statistically anomalous depletion of the loosely bound core population).

The campaign's purpose is not to hunt for H2; it is to measure the system well enough that H0 and H1 are decided on their merits — with H2's distinctive residues either appearing in the data or being retired by them.

3. Program 1: JWST infrared accretion and waste-heat limits

3.1 Science case

For any central mass M, the Eddington luminosity is LEdd ≃ 1.26×1031 (M/M) W: 1.0×1035 W at 8,200 M, 2.5×1035 W at 2×104 M, 6.2×1035 W at 4.9×104 M. The existing non-detections (Mahida et al. 2026; Chen et al. 2025) already establish that any IMBH radiates at ≲10−9 of Eddington (among the most extreme quiescence levels measured for any black hole) but the published JWST analysis is an archival by-product, not an optimized deep program. A purpose-designed campaign improves the limits by an order of magnitude and adds the two dimensions the archival data lack: variability (accretion at these rates is expected to flicker; a managed or artificial suppression of accretion, the H2 residue, is not) and waste heat (a mid-infrared excess over the stellar population model is the classic Dyson-type technosignature; Dyson 1960; Wright et al. 2014; Hsiao et al. 2021 — and at ω Cen the relevant solid angle is a few arcseconds, not a galaxy).

3.2 Current and scheduled JWST programs

Two approved JWST programs already execute pieces of this campaign, and the deliverables below are stated as increments over them. GO 5137 (PI Seth), "Weighing the Intermediate Mass Black Hole in Omega Centauri," obtains a deep NIRSpec IFU mosaic of the central field: line-of-sight (LOS) velocities for ~70 stars in the innermost region, including all four fast movers inside 1″, together with the deepest search to date for accretion-emission signatures at the candidate position (JWST GO 5137). GO 8322 extends the astrometric time base with dedicated JWST monitoring of the fast stars (JWST GO 8322). Three consequences for Program 1: (i) the accretion-emission search is no longer virgin territory — the deep-imaging deliverable is the order-of-magnitude photometric depth gain, the second epoch for variability, and the 10–30 μm waste-heat axis, none of which the IFU program provides; (ii) the contingent spectroscopic environment test (below) becomes an extension of GO 5137's footprint rather than a first observation; and (iii) the LOS velocities feed directly into the astrometric program, where they convert two-dimensional proper motions into three-dimensional velocity vectors and open a radial-velocity acceleration channel (Section 5.1).

3.3 Implementation

Deep imaging (new observations). NIRCam F200W/F356W/F444W at 20 ks per filter plus MIRI F770W/F1000W at 15 ks per filter, in two epochs separated by ~6 months: ~65 h total. In the crowded core the limits are confusion- rather than photon-limited; with empirical-PSF subtraction anchored to the oMEGACat astrometric catalogue (Häberle et al. 2024b; Nitschai et al. 2023), simulated point-source recovery reaches ~5–10 nJy (3σ) at F444W and ~30–70 nJy at F770W/F1000W after a ~3× crowding penalty. The NIRCam figures, and the crowding penalty itself, are anchored to the measured point-source recovery of the archival analysis (Chen et al. 2025), scaled by exposure time; they are extrapolations of demonstrated performance rather than pure simulation. The MIRI figures carry a larger systematic uncertainty: at F770W/F1000W the extended PSF halos of the bright-giant population overlap across the central arcseconds, and the quoted depth assumes the NIRCam-calibrated crowding penalty transfers to the mid-IR PSF, an assumption that a full scene simulation must verify before the time request is finalized. At 5.49 kpc, 10 nJy at F444W corresponds to a monochromatic νLν ≈ 2.5×1028 erg s−1; for plausible quiescent-accretion SEDs the bolometric limit is of order 1029–1030 erg s−1, i.e. Eddington ratios of 10−13–10−12 at 2×104 M — probing a regime in which even Sgr A* would be conspicuous (Event Horizon Telescope Collaboration 2022).

Two-epoch variability. Differential photometry between epochs is robust to the static crowding systematics that dominate the absolute limits; variability at the ≥20–30 per cent level for any source above ~30 nJy flags an accretion candidate and triggers the coordination protocol of Section 11. Two-epoch photometry does not measure the regulation statistic R of Paper E, a variability deficit in the 10−3–10−1 Hz MAD flux-eruption band requiring fast-cadence radio/X-ray monitoring; any accretion detection therefore also activates a fast-cadence contingency (sub-second Program 2 continuum plus archival X-ray timing).

Waste-heat analysis (archival + new). The 10–30 μm field photometry is fitted against the synthetic stellar-population SED constructed from the oMEGACat spectroscopic catalogue (Nitschai et al. 2023); the technosignature statistic is a spatially coherent excess in the central 0.1 pc exceeding 3σ over the population model. The same fit yields conventional science: the most precise mid-IR census of the post-main-sequence population in any globular cluster. Quantitatively, the deliverable is a throughput ceiling: any point-source limit Llim converts through the waste-heat floor Lwaste ≥ 10−4 Pcomp (Paper E) into Pcomp ≲ 104 Llim, currently ~103–104 L, tightening linearly with depth.

Spectroscopic environment test (Cycle 6+, contingent). The approved GO 5137 IFU observations (Section 3.2) already cover the innermost arcseconds; the contingent extension proposed here is a wider NIRSpec IFU mosaic of the inner 0.5 pc (~125 h), activated only if astrometry or timing strengthens the IMBH case, mapping abundance anomalies (Li enhancement, refractory depletion) that would discriminate between ordinary tidal-disruption debris chemistry (Hills 1988; Gezari 2021) and the engineered-feeding residue of H2. We do not request this time until the trigger condition is met.

3.4 Decision criteria

Null result (expected under H0, H1, and mature-H2 alike): bolometric limit ≲1030 erg s−1 recorded (radiative output ≲10−12 of Eddington across the contested mass range) complementing the radio Bondi-efficiency bound and jointly constraining any radiatively inefficient flow via the fundamental plane (Merloni et al. 2003; Mahida et al. 2026). A static detection consistent with a quiescent accretion SED supports H0 and immediately sharpens every dynamical program (the source position becomes the kinematic centre). A variable detection triggers multi-messenger follow-up. A >3σ extended mid-IR excess with no stellar counterpart is the single strongest electromagnetic anomaly the campaign can produce and would be adjudicated under Section 11 rules.

4. Program 2: Radio — deep imaging, narrowband SETI, and pulsar timing

4.1 Science case

The radio program carries three loads at once. (i) Continuum: a deeper interferometric limit (or first detection) on the central compact source, extending Mahida et al. (2026) and the globular-cluster IMBH radio campaigns (Strader et al. 2012; Tremou et al. 2018). (ii) Narrowband SETI: to our knowledge the first dedicated technosignature search of any kind at ω Cen, closing the gap left by the FAST pilot survey's latitude limit (Huang et al. 2026); we note that for the engineered hypotheses further radio depth buys little discrimination (Paper E), so the continuum case rests on the accretion physics of H0/H1. (iii) Pulsar timing: the binding constraint on the central mass comes from the cluster's MSP population, five discovered with Parkes (Dai et al. 2020), timed to ν̇ within 3.5 yr (Dai et al. 2023), then thirteen more with MeerKAT/TRAPUM (Chen et al. 2023; Stappers & Kramer 2016), and a nineteenth, PSR J1326−4728S, reported by the joint MeerKAT–Parkes timing analysis (Colomi Bernadich et al. 2026), which also places a 90 per cent upper limit of <10⁵ M on the central mass while being insensitive to an IMBH of 10³–10⁴ M. The same analysis finds an anomalously high fraction of isolated and black-widow systems among the cluster's MSPs, which bears directly on the MSP radial-distribution priors on which the Bañares-Hernández et al. (2025) timing bound leans, since the spatial distribution of a dynamically processed population need not follow the assumed profile. The path to resolving the mass tension runs directly through more pulsars and longer baselines (Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025).

4.2 Implementation: MeerKAT era (2026–2030)

Timing. Bi-weekly L-band sessions (~26 per year, ~3–5 h each) on all nineteen MSPs with MeerKAT (Jonas 2016), producing times of arrival at ~1 μs precision for the brightest objects. Line-of-sight acceleration precision from timing scales steeply with baseline (σa ∝ T−5/2 for white noise); by analogy with the mature 47 Tuc and Terzan 5 programs (Freire et al. 2017; Prager et al. 2017), five years of MeerKAT data yield per-pulsar acceleration uncertainties of order 10−11–10−10 m s−2 for the best-timed objects. For scale, a 4×104 M point mass imposes a ≈ 6×10−8 m s−2 at r = 0.3 pc: the discriminating signal is not the detection of acceleration (already achieved; Dai et al. 2023; Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025) but the radial profile of accelerations and jerks across the MSP population, which distinguishes a point mass (a ∝ r−2) from an extended remnant component. Commensal search observations are expected to add 5–10 MSPs (the luminosity function is far from exhausted; Chen et al. 2023), and the point-mass upper bound tightens approximately as 1/√Npsr (T0/T)≥1: ten well-timed pulsars with ten-year baselines push a 6,000 M bound to the 3,000–4,000 M level if no point-mass signal emerges — or find one.

Forecast requirement (pre-registered). The profile discriminator just described is the campaign's primary near-term test, and it is at present asserted rather than demonstrated: most of the MSPs sit well outside the central 0.1 pc, and their unknown line-of-sight positions degrade the radial information the test needs. Before the D2 data lock we will therefore complete and publish a mock-population forecast: point-mass and extended-component potentials injected at the real MSP sky positions, line-of-sight positions marginalized over the cluster density profile, and realistic timing noise applied, reporting the recoverable Bayes factor (or Δχ²) as a function of baseline and census size. An order-of-magnitude expectation frames the exercise: with 19–25 MSPs, 5–10-yr baselines, and per-pulsar acceleration uncertainties of 10−11–10−10 m s−2, the profile difference between a 2×104 M point mass and a 2–3×105 M extended component is of order 10−9–10−8 m s−2 for the innermost pulsars, suggesting Δχ² of order tens (ln K ~ 5–15) in the favourable case and degrading toward indistinguishability as the line-of-sight degeneracy is marginalized; the forecast determines where between those poles the real configuration falls. Its pre-registered success criterion is a median discrimination of Δχ² ≥ 9 between the two potentials at the D2 epoch; if the forecast falls short, the D2 decision weight shifts to the astrometric channels of Section 5. A complementary dynamical diagnostic is available from the same data: an IMBH measurably alters the degree of energy equipartition of the host cluster (Aros & Vesperini 2023), so the equipartition profile inferred from the kinematic catalogues provides an independent axis along which the point-mass and extended hypotheses separate.

Narrowband SETI. Commensally with every timing session, a 1-Hz-resolution spectrometer backend records the full primary beam (~1°, comfortably containing the whole cluster). Processing follows standard drift-search practice (Enriquez et al. 2017): Doppler drifts ±4 Hz s−1, SNR >15 candidate threshold, on–off cadence against reference pointings, and re-detection in an independent session required before any candidate advances. Seventy hours over two years reach a minimum detectable EIRP of ~(3–6)×1017 W at 5.49 kpc. That threshold follows from the standard narrowband relation

EIRPmin = 4πd² · SNR · SEFD · √(δν/t)

with d = 5.49 kpc, SNR = 10, δν = 1 Hz, and t = 70 h. A coherent MeerKAT tied-array beam (SEFD ≈ 400–450 Jy; Czech et al. 2021) would give EIRPmin ≈ 3×1016 W, an order of magnitude below the figure we quote. The difference is deliberate: a tied-array beam is arcseconds across, whereas the commensal backend must cover the full ~1° primary beam containing the whole cluster, which requires the incoherent array sum at ~√Nant-worse SEFD. The quoted (3–6)×1017 W is therefore the incoherent, full-cluster figure; a follow-up coherent pointing at the core would recover the deeper threshold over the central arcminute. This incoherent limit is roughly an order of magnitude above the FAST pilot's ~1016 W thresholds at its (closer, northern) targets (Huang et al. 2026), but it is the first limit of any kind for this cluster, and sufficient to detect any transmitter exceeding ~104 times the EIRP of the Arecibo planetary radar (a modest output for an energy-rich civilization) from any of ~107 stars in the beam simultaneously.

Continuum. The summed continuum visibilities from the timing campaign provide a ~100+ h synthesis image at L/S band; combined with the ATCA 7.25-GHz limit (Mahida et al. 2026) this constrains both the flat-spectrum (jet) and steep-spectrum (pulsar) interpretations of any future central source candidate.

4.3 Implementation: SKA era (2029–)

SKA-Mid science verification is expected in 2029 and early operational cycles in the early 2030s (Braun et al. 2019). The ω Cen program transfers wholesale: timing precision improves by the sensitivity ratio (factor ~4–5 over MeerKAT for these declinations), the MSP census plausibly doubles, and the narrowband EIRP threshold drops toward ~1016 W — FAST-class sensitivity on a southern target FAST cannot see. (The ngVLA, the other next-decade radio flagship, is not an option here: at δ = −47.5° ω Cen is inaccessible from its planned sites.) By LISA launch, the pulsar acceleration map will be the best non-GW constraint on the central potential in any globular cluster.

4.4 Decision criteria

The timing program is the campaign's primary near-term discriminator between H0 and H1: a smooth r−2 acceleration profile centred on the kinematic centre at ≥104 M retires H1; a persistently tightening upper bound below the kinematic lower bounds forces revision of the fast-star analysis (membership, foreground, or binarity systematics) and shifts the campaign's centre of gravity to H1. For SETI: any re-detected narrowband candidate enters the two-messenger protocol; a null is published as the first ω Cen technosignature limit. Paper A dependence (labelled): under H2, P3 of that paper predicts no leakage radiation, so SETI nulls carry no evidential weight against H2 — they constrain only conventional beacon scenarios.

5. Program 3: Astrometry — HST, Gaia DR4, Roman, and ELT/MICADO

5.1 Sensitivity of the direct acceleration test

The intuitively obvious astrometric test (watch the seven fast stars curve) does not work on a useful timescale, and we show this rather than assert it. The proper-motion acceleration induced by a central mass M at projected radius r is

a = GM/r² ≈ 4.4×10−7 (M/2×104 M) (r/0.08 pc)−2 m s−2 (1)

which at d = 5.49 kpc corresponds to ≈5.3×10−4 mas yr−2 (mean projection factors of order unity absorbed). Against this, the oMEGACat astrometry (~0.02 mas single-epoch precision over a ~15-year HST baseline) delivers acceleration uncertainties of σa ≈ 1×10−3 mas yr−2 per star (Häberle et al. 2024a, 2024b): a 0.5σ measurement. Extending HST monitoring to 2028 (a 26-year baseline) improves this only to ~0.7σ; a four-year ELT/MICADO campaign at ~50–100 μas per epoch (Davies et al. 2021) reaches σa ≈ 2×10−3 mas yr−2 — worse, because acceleration precision scales as T−2 and four years is short (Figure 2). Direct 5σ curvature detection at nominal parameters requires either M ≳ 105 M, a star at r < 0.015 pc, or ≳30-year baselines on ELT-class astrometry. We therefore retain the fast-star monitoring (cheap; protects against the lucky cases, since González Prieto et al. 2025-mass holes and undiscovered inner stars are both live possibilities) but route the decision-grade astrometry through three measurements that do work, below.

The approved GO 5137 spectroscopy (Section 3.2) adds two levers this budget did not include. First, the LOS velocities of the fast movers convert their two-dimensional proper motions into three-dimensional velocity vectors; since the LOS component can only increase a star's total speed, each measurement can only tighten the escape-velocity lower bound of Häberle et al. (2024a), star by star. Second, repeat NIRSpec visits open a radial-velocity-drift acceleration channel independent of the proper-motion curvature budget above. The expected LOS acceleration at the fiducial parameters of Eq. (1) is alos ≈ 4.4×10−7 m s−2 ≈ 0.014 km s−1 yr−1. Assuming per-epoch RV precision of ~3 km s−1 (crowded-field NIRSpec on faint members) and annual visits over five years with white noise, the recoverable drift uncertainty is σ ≈ σRV√12/(√n T) ≈ 0.9 km s−1 yr−1: a factor ~70 above the nominal signal, the same verdict as the proper-motion channel. The channel nonetheless earns its place because it shares none of the proper-motion systematics (frame tie, geometric distortion) and inherits the full r−2 gain for any inner star: at r = 0.01 pc the drift signal reaches ~0.9 km s−1 yr−1, detectable within a five-year GO 5137 extension.

25 1020 40 10⁻⁵10⁻⁴ 10⁻³10⁻² baseline T (yr) σ_a or signal (mas yr⁻²) HST-class (σ_pos ~ 20 μas) ELT/MICADO-class (σ_pos ~ 70 μas) signal: 2×10⁴ M☉ at 0.08 pc signal: 4.9×10⁴ M☉ at 0.08 pc
Figure 2. Why direct acceleration detection on the known fast stars is marginal: 1σ acceleration uncertainty versus baseline for HST-class and ELT-class astrometric campaigns (curves, σa ∝ σposT−2, anchored to the measured oMEGACat performance and nominal MICADO performance), against the expected signals (horizontal lines, Eq. 1). Curves assume uniform observing cadence over the full baseline and are therefore optimistic for sparse epoch-limited extensions (the realistic 2028 HST extension yields only ~0.7σ). Even the heavy González Prieto et al. (2025) mass crosses 5σ only for baselines approaching two decades. The radial-velocity-drift channel opened by GO 5137-class NIRSpec monitoring (Section 5.1) reaches the same verdict at the nominal fast-star radius, while an inner star at 0.01 pc would cross its sensitivity within a few years. The astrometric program is therefore built around wander, reference-frame, and discovery measurements instead (Section 5.2).

5.2 Three astrometric measurements that do work

(i) Photocentric wander (Roman). An IMBH of mass M in dynamical equilibrium with stars of mean mass m̄ executes Brownian motion with velocity σ ~ σ√(m̄/M) relative to the cluster centre of mass. The lighter the hole, the larger its wander: the predicted amplitude differs by ~17 per cent between 6,000 and 8,200 M (the square root of the mass ratio), and by a factor ~2.4 between 8,200 and 4.9×104 M. Resolving it requires measuring the reflex motion of the innermost stellar distribution at the few-μas yr−1 level against the bulk cluster frame: the regime of Roman's wide-field astrometry, which delivers ~10 μas-class differential astrometry over fields vastly larger than HST's, tying the inner arcseconds to thousands of cluster reference stars at once (Sanderson et al. 2019). Two saturation caveats bound the reference-star pool: ω Cen's brightest giants saturate Roman's detectors even in the shortest exposure modes, and the faint end is photon-starved in crowding, so we take the usable reference-star window to be roughly F146 ≈ 16–21 mag (a stated assumption to be verified against the as-flown detector performance). With launch announced for 2026 August 30, a five-year cadenced guest-observer program (ω Cen lies outside the core community surveys, so epochs must be requested, but the per-epoch cost is small) discriminates the light-IMBH from heavy-IMBH wander regimes at the factor-2.4 amplitude level. A 3–5σ separation is the measurement-noise-limited best case, which we do not headline because the dominant systematic, the N-body background-model amplitude, is not yet quantified.

(ii) The absolute reference frame (Gaia DR4, December 2026). The dominant systematic in all current inner-field astrometry is the tie between HST's relative frame and the absolute (ICRS) frame. Gaia DR4's 5.5-year solutions for the r > 10″ cluster members (Gaia Collaboration 2016) improve proper motions by a factor ~4.5 over DR2-era ties, propagating directly into the fast-star velocity vectors — and thus into the 8,200 M lower bound itself, which rests on those velocities exceeding the escape speed. This is the cheapest decisive measurement in the entire campaign: a re-derivation of the Häberle et al. (2024a) bound on the DR4 frame either firms the tension into a >5σ contradiction with the timing bound or dissolves it. Deliverable in 2027 from archival data alone.

(iii) Inner-star discovery (ELT/MICADO, 2029+). MICADO's ~10 mas resolution and 39-m aperture (Davies et al. 2021) penetrate the central arcsecond at magnitudes HST cannot reach in crowding, with the realistic prize being new fast stars at r < 0.02 pc. A single star at 0.01 pc raises the acceleration signal of Eq. (1) by a factor of 64, converting Figure 2's verdict from "decades" to "a few epochs" — this is how the Galactic-Centre program succeeded (GRAVITY Collaboration 2018), and ω Cen is its natural second act at 10² × lower mass. With ELT first light scheduled for 2029 and commissioning occupying the first year of operations, the first MICADO astrometric epochs realistically arrive in 2030–31, at two epochs per year thereafter; first acceleration-grade results by the early 2030s.

5.3 Decision criteria

DR4 re-derivation (2027): if the fast-star velocity excess survives at >5σ, H1 requires the MSP analysis to be systematically biased — a specific, checkable claim (radial distribution priors; Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025). Roman wander (2031): light/heavy discrimination feeds the LISA prior. MICADO inner stars (2030s): any star with measured Keplerian curvature yields M to tens of per cent, independent of statistical modelling, before LISA flies.

6. Program 4: The LISA forecast

6.1 Science case

LISA is the campaign's endgame: the only instrument that can measure the central object's mass and spin to high precision regardless of its electromagnetic state (Colpi et al. 2024; Amaro-Seoane et al. 2017). For a compact object inspiralling into a 104-class IMBH, matched-filter parameter estimation delivers fractional precisions of order 10−3–10−4 on mass and 10−3 on spin (Babak et al. 2017; Amaro-Seoane 2018). At 5.49 kpc (versus the Gpc distances over which LISA expects to detect its EMRI population) any ω Cen inspiral in band during the mission would be loud (signal-to-noise in the hundreds to thousands), making occurrence probability, not sensitivity, the limiting factor.

6.2 Occurrence rates

Cluster-dynamics simulations imply IMRI formation rates per cluster of order 10−8–10−6 yr−1 depending on IMBH mass, binary fraction, and core density; over a 4–10-year mission this yields an in-band inspiral probability for ω Cen of ≤10−5, so the spin constraint will more probably arrive statistically, from the population of comparable systems LISA detects, than from ω Cen itself — possibly enhanced by the cluster's unusually dense remnant population, but not to order unity. The forecast must therefore be stated in three tiers. Tier 1 (probable): no ω Cen source; LISA still constrains the stochastic foreground from the core remnant population, directly testing H1's extended-component density profile. Tier 2 (plausible): a quasi-monochromatic source (a compact object orbiting the IMBH well outside plunge) detectable over the mission as a continuous-wave source; this measures M through the orbital frequency and its drift, to precision intermediate between timing and a full inspiral. Quantitatively, the accessible band is fGW ≈ 10−3–10−2 Hz: for a 2×104 M primary at 5.49 kpc, a 1.4 M companion at fGW ≈ 2 mHz (orbital radius ≈ 0.03 AU, ~10² rg) accumulates matched-filter SNR of order 10² over a 4-yr mission, and SNR > 8 is retained down to companion masses of ~0.1 M at the same frequency or for a 1.4 M companion out to orbital radii of ~0.05 AU (fGW ≈ 8×10−4 Hz); occurrence, not sensitivity, is again the limiting factor. Tier 3 (lucky): a genuine inspiral; per-mille mass and spin. The campaign's structure ensures that even Tier 1 is decisive when combined with the pulsar acceleration map (Section 4): a stochastic-foreground non-detection plus a point-mass timing profile isolates H0.

6.3 The spin measurement as the H2 adjudicator

Paper A dependence (labelled): under H2 the single sharpest residue is near-extremal spin (a ≳ 0.9) on a hole that has demonstrably accreted nothing for Gyr; under H0 natural formation channels for cluster IMBHs span low-to-moderate spin. A Tier 3 spin measurement therefore adjudicates H2 at the same instant it completes the H0/H1 question — the entire reason this campaign's electromagnetic and dynamical groundwork must precede LISA rather than follow it. The full decision tree, including this branch, is assembled in Section 13.

6.4 Deliverables before launch

Between now and the mid-2030s the program's work is preparatory but concrete: (i) maintain the dynamical model of the inner parsec (timing + astrometry) so that any LISA source has an immediate host context; (ii) publish the ω Cen-specific EMRI/IMRI rate forecast with the post-2026 mass constraints folded in; (iii) ensure the cluster's barycentric ephemeris and distance (±0.06 kpc; Häberle et al. 2025) are maintained at the precision LISA parameter estimation will assume.

7. Program 5: KM3NeT/ARCA neutrino monitoring

7.1 Science case and geometry

ω Cen at declination −47.5° is an up-going source for the Mediterranean: KM3NeT/ARCA observes it through the Earth, with atmospheric muons filtered out and sub-0.2° angular resolution for track events at ≳10 TeV (Adrián-Martínez et al. 2016). For IceCube the same source is down-going (degraded but usable above ~100 TeV; IceCube Collaboration 2020); the combined ANTARES+IceCube southern-sky analysis (Albert et al. 2020) defines the archival baseline. ARCA stood at 51 of 230 detection units in early 2026, with real-time alert distribution entering commissioning; sensitivity grows roughly linearly with instrumented volume through the decade. The conventional science driver is a deep point-source limit on a dense old stellar system; the technosignature driver (Paper A dependence, labelled) is the burst-mode prediction of black-hole-based computation models (Dvali & Osmanov 2023; Lacki & DiKerby 2025), for which a cluster like ω Cen is the natural test bed and which the existing point-source pipelines do not target: their time-integrated statistics dilute rare short multiplets.

7.2 Implementation

Steady-state search (archival + ongoing). Standard unbinned-likelihood point-source analysis (Braun et al. 2008) at the ω Cen coordinates in (i) the ANTARES+IceCube combined dataset, (ii) the growing ARCA exposure. Full-array ARCA reaches E²Φ ~ few ×10−12–10−11 TeV cm−2 s−1 at this declination over multi-year integrations — the deepest neutrino limit ever placed on a globular cluster.

Burst pipeline (new, the campaign's contribution). A pre-registered transient search in sliding windows of 10², 10³, and 10⁴ s within 1° of the cluster centre, E ≳ 10 TeV, on ARCA data plus IceCube alerts. The detection criterion (≥3 tracks in one window, ≥5σ post-trials, no plausible astrophysical counterpart) is calibrated by the background expectation: the atmospheric-neutrino rate above 10 TeV within a 1° cone is of order 10−7 s−1 (a deliberately conservative envelope, likely one to two orders of magnitude above the measured up-going rate for so small a cone), so a 10³-s window expects ~10−4 events and a triplet is intrinsically far beyond 5σ before trials; the design problem is the trials budget over a decade of monitoring (~3×106 windows), which the post-trials threshold absorbs (Figure 3). Any KM3NeT or IceCube real-time alert within 1° triggers the electromagnetic protocol of Section 11 — the alert system's first ω Cen-relevant cycle begins in late 2026.

10²10³ 10⁴ 10⁻⁶10⁻⁵ 10⁻⁴10⁻³ 10⁻²10⁻¹ burst window Δt (s) expected background events in window atmospheric ν, E>10 TeV, 1° cone same, E>1 TeV (for comparison) triplet criterion: ≥3 tracks per window P_Poisson(≥3 | μ = 10⁻⁴) ≈ 1.7×10⁻¹³ decade trials budget ~ 3×10⁶ windows ⇒ post-trials false-alarm ~ 5×10⁻⁷ (≈ 5σ)
Figure 3. Design of the neutrino burst search. Expected atmospheric-neutrino background within 1° of ω Cen versus window length, for the working E > 10 TeV threshold (solid) and a softer 1 TeV threshold (dashed). At 10³ s the expectation is ~10−4 events, so the pre-registered triplet criterion is intrinsically secure against background even after a decade-scale trials budget; rate normalizations are order-of-magnitude, with exact values set by the detector Monte Carlo at analysis time.

7.3 Decision criteria

A decade-scale null at full-array sensitivity closes the burst-mode channel of Dvali & Osmanov (2023) for this system at its predicted strength — a publishable falsification regardless of H2 (the underlying micro-black-hole physics is itself contested; Álvarez-Domínguez et al. 2024; Loeb 2024). One confirmed multiplet with no counterpart, repeated at the same location, would be among the most significant anomalies in high-energy astrophysics independent of any ETI interpretation; the protocol deliberately treats it as an astrophysical discovery first.

8. Program 6: Gamma rays — Fermi-LAT archival and CTAO-South

8.1 Science case

ω Cen is a GeV source: 4FGL J1326.7−4729 coincides with the core, and its emission is attributed to the MSP ensemble after deep searches found no individual pulsations (Dai et al. 2020, 2023). This is both foreground and opportunity: the steady MSP emission is a calibration source against which transient or spectrally anomalous excesses can be sought with high contrast. The technosignature channel shares the burst phenomenology of Program 5 (the Dvali & Osmanov 2023 spectrum is "democratic" across species, implying γ-ray counterparts to any neutrino burst); the conventional channel is a TeV detection or limit on the cluster, of independent interest for MSP magnetospheric and inverse-Compton physics.

8.2 Implementation

Fermi-LAT (archival, immediate). Re-analysis of the now >17-year LAT exposure at the cluster position: (i) refit of the steady source with current diffuse models; (ii) a sliding-window transient search (Δt = 10²–10⁴ s, matched to Program 5's windows) over the full mission, with the steady MSP flux as null model; (iii) spectral-cutoff analysis — MSP ensembles cut off at a few GeV, so any significant emission above ~30 GeV flags a non-MSP component. All three are pure archival analyses.

CTAO-South (2027+). The first Paranal telescopes arrive through late 2026 (CTA Consortium 2019); intermediate arrays operate while construction proceeds. We propose (i) a 50-h deep exposure reaching ~10−13 erg cm−2 s−1 at 1 TeV with the completed Alpha configuration (the 2027-era intermediate array delivers a factor 2–4 less at equal time), substantially bettering the archival VHE limits placed on globular clusters by the H.E.S.S. cluster survey (H.E.S.S. Collaboration 2013) — the first CTAO-depth TeV limit on any globular cluster core — and (ii) a standing target-of-opportunity trigger: any Program-5 alert within 1° pre-authorizes prompt CTAO follow-up, the latency being minutes for a source that transits Paranal ~23° from zenith.

8.3 Decision criteria

A LAT transient coincident with a neutrino window elevates any Program-5 candidate to the campaign's highest tier. A TeV detection of steady emission is conventional astrophysics (and would make ω Cen the second VHE-detected globular cluster, after the H.E.S.S. emission coincident with Terzan 5; Abramowski et al. 2011); its absence at CTAO depth tightens the inverse-Compton budget of the MSP population well beyond the existing H.E.S.S.-era cluster limits (H.E.S.S. Collaboration 2013). Spectral excess above 30 GeV without transient behaviour prompts a dark-matter-versus-exotica analysis before any H2 language is entertained.

9. Program 7: Optical/IR time domain — Rubin/LSST and archival anomalies

9.1 Science case

Two distinct searches share this program. First, transients: tidal disruption of a star by an IMBH is the one natural event that would announce the central object unambiguously (Hills 1988; Gezari 2021); rates are low (~10−7–10−6 yr−1 per cluster for full disruptions, higher for partial-disruption flares of the dense remnant environment) but the cost of monitoring is now effectively zero, because Rubin has taken science data since late 2025 (Pre-LSST), the ten-year LSST formally began on 2026 June 30, and ω Cen sits in the survey footprint (Ivezić et al. 2019). Second, archival photometric anomalies: the oMEGACat HST archive, 500+ epochs over 20+ years for 106 stars (Häberle et al. 2024b; Nitschai et al. 2023), is an essentially unmined time-domain dataset in which periodic dimmings, secular fades, or statistically anomalous variability classes (the photometric residues conjectured for megastructures; Wright et al. 2014; Hsiao et al. 2021; Socas-Navarro et al. 2021) can be sought with two decades of baseline for free.

9.2 Implementation

LSST stream. The cluster core saturates LSST, but the half-light region and outskirts do not: a full TDE at 5.49 kpc peaks near V ≈ 0 to −3, hopelessly saturated for LSST difference imaging, so the bright-event trigger is ASAS-SN/Evryscope-class all-sky photometry, with the campaign registering the cluster position with those pipelines; the LSST broker filter covers the faint regime, (i) partial-disruption and heavily extincted nuclear transients at r ≳ 16, and (ii) anomalous variables among ~105 measurable members. Difference-imaging in the crowded annulus is handled with the oMEGACat reference catalogue.

Archival mining. A systematic variability census of the oMEGACat photometric archive: period search to ~0.05 mag depth across 106 stars, secular-trend extraction, and an explicitly pre-registered anomaly statistic (population-level excess of non-physical light-curve classes) with human vetting of survivors. Conventional yield: the deepest variable-star census of any globular cluster, eclipsing-binary distance cross-checks, and stellar-rotation demographics — publishable regardless of anomalies.

Core-depletion statistic (joint with Program 3). Paper A dependence (labelled): H2's P4c predicts secular depletion of the loosely bound core population beyond N-body expectations. The measurement, star counts by binding-energy quantile against matched N-body models (González Prieto et al. 2025), is identical to standard mass-segregation analysis and is conventional dynamics on its face; we track the depletion direction as an explicitly exploratory statistic: direction only, since neither an effect size nor the H0/H1 envelope definition is yet fixed; promotion to pre-registered status awaits the matched N-body envelope work.

9.3 Decision criteria

A nuclear TDE settles the IMBH question electromagnetically (and its decay light curve constrains M; Gezari 2021); the campaign's role is to guarantee the multi-wavelength response is pre-arranged. Archival anomalies are population statistics: no single weird star means anything (the false-positive history of photometric SETI is long); only a ≥3σ class-level excess, surviving vetting, enters the coordination protocol.

10. Program 8: Supplementary archival channels

Three channels are cheap enough to run as graduate-student archival projects and complete the messenger coverage.

Archival X-rays (Chandra, XMM-Newton, eROSITA). The X-ray band is the standard probe of quiescent black-hole accretion, and the campaign as presented so far would otherwise lack it. The benchmark limit is the ~291 ks Chandra exposure of Haggard et al. (2013), which detects no central point source and bounds the unabsorbed luminosity at LX(0.5–7.0 keV) ≲ 1.6×1030 erg s−1, an Eddington ratio of ≲10−12 for a 104 M hole. The archival program re-derives this limit at the current oMEGACat kinematic centre (the 2013 analysis predates the fast-star centre determination), stacks the subsequent Chandra and XMM-Newton exposures of the field, and folds in the released eROSITA all-sky survey epochs (eRASS1 in the DR1 release, plus the subsequent completed passes as the consortium releases them) as a variability screen, noting that the survey was halted in February 2022, so the eROSITA screen covers 2020–2022 only; a joint X-ray–radio treatment through the fundamental plane (Merloni et al. 2003) then constrains radiatively inefficient flow models alongside the Program 1 and Program 2 limits. Any X-ray point source at the kinematic centre, at any flux, would be a major result; the expected null sharpens the deepest multi-band quiescence measurement for any black hole candidate.

Continuous gravitational waves (LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA). Narrowband searches at twice the spin frequencies of the nineteen known MSPs, using public O4/O5 data and the MeerKAT ephemerides, following the known-pulsar methodology of Abbott et al. (2022). Expected upper limits h0 ≲ 10−26 translate to ellipticity limits ε ≲ few ×10−8 at 5.49 kpc for the faster spinners — conventional neutron-star physics in an environment (a dense old cluster) where the recycled-pulsar population is dynamically distinctive. The technosignature reading (structured masses in MSP orbits) is not separately funded; it shares the identical data product.

Ultra-high-energy cosmic rays (Pierre Auger). ω Cen sits well inside Auger's southern acceptance. A stacked directional analysis around the cluster position in the public E > 8 EeV dataset (Pierre Auger Collaboration 2017), with 1° and 3° apertures bracketing magnetic deflection, either contributes an upper limit on hadronic acceleration in the core (of conventional interest given the MSP wind population) or flags an anisotropy for which the Galactic-Centre region (18° away) is the obvious confounder to exclude first.

11. Coordination, joint statistics, and data policy

11.1 The two-messenger rule, operationalized

Table 3 pre-registers the campaign's trigger and confirmation matrix. Each row names a primary trigger, the channels that can confirm it, and the joint-significance requirement. Combined significances across independent channels use Fisher's method on the per-channel p-values; each per-channel p-value entering the combination must itself be post-trials within its channel (its look-elsewhere budget over windows, frequencies, and positions already paid), so the combination never launders pre-trials significances. The global claim threshold is set at p < 5×10−7 post-trials — deliberately at discovery convention, because the base rate of true technosignatures is unknown and plausibly zero, so the loss function is asymmetric: a false positive damages the field's credibility far more than a delayed true positive damages the discovery (Wright et al. 2022). This matrix is the campaign's trigger layer; the inference layer is the hierarchical Bayes-factor framework of Paper E, whose Kass–Raftery ln K action bands adjudicate any trigger and whose candidate band requires support from at least two messengers by construction. A trigger that clears the matrix but earns weak ln K is disposed of as an unexplained astrophysical candidate, never a technosignature claim. Paper E's hypothesis labels map onto this paper's as Hq ↔ H0, Hsub ↔ H1, Heng ↔ H2.

Table 3. Pre-registered trigger and confirmation matrix. "Joint" = Fisher-combined post-trials significance required for any anomaly claim; single-channel events, however significant, are reported as astrophysical candidates only.
Primary triggerChannel thresholdConfirming channelsDisposition
Neutrino multiplet (P5)≥3 tracks / 1° / 102–3 s / ≥10 TeV, 5σ post-trialsFermi-LAT window (P6); CTAO ToO (P6); JWST/ground IR (P1)repeat at same position required for anomaly claim; single event published as astrophysical transient
Narrowband radio line (P2)SNR >15, re-detected in independent sessionoff-source cadence; second telescope (e.g. ATCA)interference exclusion protocol precedes any claim
IR variable/transient (P1, P7)≥20% amplitude or new source >5σradio continuum (P2); X-ray archival; LSST stream (P7)classified as accretion/TDE candidate first
Photometric anomaly class (P7)≥3σ population-level excessindependent archive (Gaia epochs); spectroscopypopulation statistic only; no single-star claims
Astrometric anomaly (P3)core-depletion or wander outside H0/H1 envelopes at 3σtiming acceleration map (P2)feeds LISA prior; no standalone claim
LISA spin/mass result (P4)per mission parameter estimationall of the above as contextadjudicates H0/H1/H2 per Section 13

11.2 Alert latency and standing authorizations

The latency-critical path is neutrino → gamma/optical: KM3NeT real-time alerts (commissioning through 2026) distribute within seconds–minutes; the CTAO ToO and LSST-broker hooks are standing authorizations requiring no human decision for the first response hour. Slow-path coordination (JWST DDT requests, radio re-pointing) is pre-drafted as template proposals with trigger criteria attached, cutting submission latency to <24 h.

11.3 Data policy

All pipelines, thresholds, and analysis code are public from the start (the pre-registration is itself the methods paper); all derived catalogues are released with their papers; raw data inherit host-facility policies. Negative results are published on a fixed cadence — the field's credibility problem is survivorship bias, and a campaign explicitly designed around falsification should model the cure.

11.4 Program summary

Table 4 assembles the eight programs with sensitivities, requests, and timelines.

Table 4. Campaign summary. "Type": A = archival/commensal, N = new observations, F = free by-product of funded survey. Costs are rough full-cost estimates (Section 12); facility time is listed separately since it is allocated, not purchased.
#ProgramTypeKey sensitivityFacility requestTimelineDecides
P1JWST IR limitsN~10 nJy (F444W); Lbol ≲ 1030 erg s−1~65 h, 2 epochs2027–2029accretion state; waste heat
P2Radio: timing + SETI + continuumNσa ~ 10−11–10−10 m s−2 (5 yr); EIRP (3–6)×1017 W~130 h yr−1 MeerKAT, 5 yr2026–2031+H0 vs H1 (profile); first SETI limit
P3Astrometry: DR4 + Roman + ELTA/F/Nframe to DR4; wander factor-2.4 (light vs heavy); inner-star discoveryarchival; Roman survey; ~28 h ELT2026–2035mass tension; wander mass
P4LISA forecastFδM/M ~ 10−3–4, δa ~ 10−3 (if inspiral)none (mission science)2035+everything (Tier 3)
P5Neutrino monitoringA/NE²Φ ~ few×10−12 TeV cm−2 s−1; burst tripletspipeline on ARCA stream2026–2040Dvali–Osmanov channel
P6Gamma raysA/NLAT transient windows; 10−13 erg cm−2 s−1 at 1 TeV (50 h)50 h CTAO + ToO2026–2032burst counterparts; TeV first
P7Time domainA/FTDE flares unmissable; 106-star archival censusLSST stream; archival2026–2036TDE; anomaly classes
P8CW + UHECR archivalAh0 ≲ 10−26; stacked UHECR limitpublic data2026–2029completeness

12. Cost and timeline

12.1 Costing

Table 5 presents full-cost estimates (salaries, computing, travel, publication; US academic rates) for each program. Facility time is excluded (it is competitively allocated and carries no cash cost to the campaign) as is LISA, which is mission science. The total, ≲ US$7M over a decade, is small by every relevant comparison: a single mid-scale NASA Explorer instrument, one JWST cycle's archival-funding pool, or the marginal cost of a few nights of ELT operations.

Table 5. Indicative full-cost budget (US$k, 2026 dollars). Personnel figures assume postdoc-led programs with PI/Co-I fractions and graduate students where noted. Estimates for the Roman component of P3 and for P5, P6, P7 are new to this paper; others follow the per-instrument proposal studies available at omegacentauri.me.
ProgramCostYearsDominant element
P1  JWST deep imaging + waste heat1,3103postdoc + grad + HPC
P1b JWST spectroscopic phase (contingent)2572postdoc (triggered only)
P2  MeerKAT timing + SETI + continuum2,90052 postdocs + grad + computing
P3  HST/Gaia frame + Roman wander4254postdoc + HPC
P3b ELT/MICADO epochs4904postdoc share + travel
P4  LISA preparatory modelling1503PI/Co-I fractions
P5  Neutrino burst pipeline2503postdoc + compute
P6  Fermi archival + CTAO ToO2003postdoc share
P7  LSST broker + archival mining3003postdoc + broker engineering
P8  CW + UHECR archival2393graduate RA + HPC
Coordination, data releases, workshops15010part-time coordinator
Total (P1b excluded)6,414

12.2 Timeline

Figure 4 lays the programs against the facility schedule. The structure is deliberate: the 2026–2028 window is dominated by archival work and standing-pipeline construction (cheap, immediate); 2029–2034 by the new-facility harvest (ELT, SKA-Mid, CTAO completion, Roman mid-mission); 2035+ by LISA. Decision points D1–D4 are marked and defined in Section 13.

202620282030 203220342036 20382040 P1 JWST imaging epochs P2 MeerKAT timing/SETI P2→SKA-Mid era P3 Gaia DR4 re-derivation P3 Roman wander (launch 2026-08-30) P3 ELT/MICADO inner stars P5 neutrino monitoring (ARCA build-out) P6 Fermi archival + CTAO P7 LSST stream + archival P8 CW + UHECR archival P4 LISA (launch ~2035) D1D2 D3D4
Figure 4. Campaign timeline against the facility schedule, 2026–2040. Decision points: D1 (2027): Gaia-DR4 re-derivation of the fast-star bound. D2 (2030): five-year pulsar acceleration profile; Roman wander first results. D3 (2033): pre-LISA synthesis — H0 versus H1 called at available significance. D4 (2037): LISA verdict, if a source is caught.

13. The decision structure through 2040

Figure 5 assembles the campaign into a single decision tree, extending the gravitational-wave branch of Paper A's falsification framework backward into the electromagnetic-and-timing era. Rough branch weights are stated where the inputs exist to estimate them; they are planning priors, not forecasts, and we expect D1/D2 to revise them substantially.

D1 (2027): DR4 frame re-derivation fast-star velocity excess robust? No: bound dissolves; H₁ default; campaign continues as cluster- dynamics program (~25%) D2 (2030): timing profile + Roman wander (~75%) Extended-profile verdict: H₁ confirmed; IMBH retired; Paper A's ω Cen application falsified pre-LISA Point-mass-profile verdict: D3 (2033): pre-LISA synthesis M• to tens of % Inconclusive profile: both live; LISA decides D4 (2035+): LISA — source caught? (~10% per nominal rates; Tier 2 paths higher) No source: stochastic-foreground limit + timing profile remain the verdict; spin unmeasured M• < 6×10³ M☉: timing vindicated; fast-star systematics post-mortem M• ≥ 10⁴ M☉, a★ < 0.9: H₀ confirmed; flagship IMBH; H₂ unsupported M• ≥ 10⁴ M☉, a★ ≥ 0.9 on a Gyr-starved hole: anomaly stack opens; escalate P5/P6 excess gonerobust extendedpoint massunclear no lightheavy, slowheavy, fast
Figure 5. Decision structure through 2040. Red boxes retire hypotheses; the single green branch is the only path on which the technosignature interpretation gains material support — and even there the claim is "anomaly requiring explanation." Percentages are planning priors only. The tree's essential property is that every terminal node is a publishable scientific result about a first-rank astrophysical object.

14. Conclusion

Omega Centauri in 2026 presents a configuration that observational astronomy rarely supplies: a contested discovery (the Galaxy's best IMBH candidate) whose two strongest constraints formally contradict each other; an electromagnetic silence deep enough to be a result in itself; an essentially untouched technosignature parameter space; and a fleet of new southern and all-sky instruments (Rubin, Roman, Gaia DR4, KM3NeT, CTAO, SKA-Mid, ELT, and ultimately LISA) arriving on the timescale needed to resolve all of it. The campaign presented here is designed to use that conjunction fully.

Its architecture reflects three commitments. First, dual use: every program stands as conventional astrophysics (the mass tension, the quiescent-accretion frontier, the MSP dynamical laboratory, the first deep TeV and neutrino limits on a globular cluster) so that no null result is a loss. Second, conservative sensitivity accounting: where the obvious measurement fails (direct fast-star acceleration before ~2040), we demonstrate the failure quantitatively and redesign around it, because a program that oversells its tests invites the credibility collapse that has repeatedly damaged this field. Third, pre-registration: hypotheses H0/H1/H2, thresholds, confirmation rules, and decision points are fixed in advance, so that whatever the sky delivers (a remnant swarm, a quiet heavy hole, or a genuine anomaly) the inference chain was written down before anyone knew the answer.

The adjudication asymmetry deserves a blunt statement. Under realistic outcomes, this campaign will resolve H0 versus H1; it will neither support nor retire H2 except through the low-probability LISA spin branch or a serendipitous multi-messenger multiplet. No null result carries evidential weight against H2, because the leakage-free and electromagnetically silent predictions of that hypothesis class are compatible with every null the campaign can produce; what the campaign buys for H2 is the pre-registered infrastructure to adjudicate a positive trigger if one ever arrives, and quantitative limits on the specific loud sub-classes (beacons, waste heat above the JWST floor, neutrino bursts at predicted strength).

The cost is under US$7M across a decade, most of it salaries for archival analysis riding on facilities that are funded regardless. The payoff structure is asymmetric in the campaign's favour: the probable outcomes (a resolved mass tension, a characterized central object, the first technosignature limits on 107 old stars) are solid science at modest cost, and the improbable outcome (the green branch of Figure 5) would justify the program many thousands of times over. We commit, symmetrically, to the red branches: if the timing profile confirms an extended remnant component, or LISA delivers a light or slowly spinning hole, the anomaly hypotheses retire here without special pleading, and what remains is what was always underneath: the most interesting stellar system in the southern sky, finally measured properly.

Acknowledgements and disclosure

The author thanks the maintainers of the NASA Astrophysics Data System and arXiv, on which the citation verification for this work relied. AI assistance disclosure: drafting, citation verification, derivation checking, and figure preparation for this manuscript were performed with substantial assistance from a large language model (Claude, Anthropic), under the author's direction; the author reviewed and takes full responsibility for all claims, derivations, and references. Interactive calculators implementing the quantitative material in this paper, together with the underlying per-instrument proposal studies, are available at omegacentauri.me.

Data availability

No new observational data were generated for this work. All quantitative claims derive from the cited literature; analysis conventions for the proposed programs will be released with the respective pipeline papers. The pre-registration documents (hypotheses, trigger matrix, thresholds, and analysis plans, as fixed by Tables 3 and 4) are maintained at omegacentauri.me.

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