🧊 DRAFT RESEARCH PROPOSAL · IceCube · COMPLEMENTARY SOUTHERN-SKY ANALYSIS
IceCube Neutrino Search for Technosignature Emission from Omega Centauri
A multi-year time-integrated and time-dependent point-source analysis using IceCube's
10-year public dataset as a complementary southern-sky probe, paired with ANTARES archival data —
setting stringent independent limits on Hawking-like emission from Omega Centauri's IMBH candidate ·
Working draft for collaboration development · April 2026
1. Principal Investigator Statement
We propose a multi-year time-integrated and time-dependent neutrino point-source analysis
centered on Omega Centauri (ω Cen, NGC 5139), using IceCube's 10-year accumulated exposure
and the ANTARES complementary dataset, to set the most stringent independent limits to date
on Hawking-like emission from this target.
This proposal is designed as a complementary analysis to the primary KM3NeT/ARCA
program. IceCube's long baseline and existing public dataset allow immediate sensitivity
estimates; KM3NeT/ARCA's superior geometry at δ ≈ −47° makes it the preferred long-term instrument.
A combined analysis will improve sensitivity by approximately a factor of 2 over either instrument alone.
2. Scientific Rationale
2.1 Target and Current Constraints
Omega Centauri's key parameters as of April 2026:
Parameter
Value
Source
Distance
5.49 ± 0.06 kpc (17,900 ly)
Häberle et al. 2025, oMEGACat VI
IMBH lower bound (velocity)
≥8,200 M☉
Häberle et al. 2024, Nature
IMBH lower bound (acceleration, paper body §4)
≥21,100 M☉ (99% CL)
Häberle et al. 2024, Nature
N-body simulation best-fit
~50,000 M☉ (±20,000)
González Prieto et al. 2025
Competing model upper limit
<6,000 M☉ (3σ)
Bañares-Hernández et al. 2025
EM accretion signature
Zero (radio + infrared)
Mahida et al. 2025; Chen et al. 2025
⚠ Key scientific context: The IMBH lower bound from Häberle et al.
and the upper limit from Bañares-Hernández et al. are formally contradictory. This proposal has
scientific value under both scenarios: (1) if a single IMBH is confirmed, the search constrains
possible ETI activity; (2) if the dark cluster model is confirmed, the search still constrains any
high-energy emission from the cluster core regardless of origin.
2.2 IceCube's Role: Complementary, Not Primary
ARCA vs IceCube for ω Cen (δ = −47°):
KM3NeT/ARCA advantage: δ = −47° is nearly always upgoing at Capo Passero —
strong Earth shielding, <0.1° angular resolution at ≥10 TeV, optimal sensitivity.
ARCA is the primary recommended instrument for this target.
IceCube consideration: For IceCube at the South Pole, δ = −47° is ~43°
from the zenith — a downgoing source. Atmospheric muon background is significantly higher than
for upgoing events. IceCube's southern-sky point-source sensitivity at this declination is
~10⁻¹¹ TeV cm⁻² s⁻¹ for E⁻² spectra, comparable to ARCA but achieved with greater background
contamination. The combined ANTARES+IceCube analysis (Albert et al. 2019, JCAP) improves this
by ~2× in the relevant declination band.
IceCube's genuine advantage: 10+ years of accumulated public data available
now, enabling immediate sensitivity estimates while KM3NeT/ARCA accumulates exposure.
2.3 Technosignature Framework
Dvali & Osmanov (2023, Int. J. Astrobiology 22, 617–640) propose that advanced
civilisations may use quantum black holes as computational substrates. The associated Hawking-like
emission would include high-energy neutrinos detectable by current instruments. This framework
does not predict a specific flux; the proposal's scientific value lies in setting the first
dedicated limits at current detector sensitivity.
3. Observation Strategy
3.1 Datasets
Primary: IceCube 10-year point-source event sample (2010–2020),
public data release
Auxiliary: ANTARES 2007–2017 southern-sky sample (Albert et al. 2019);
combined analysis following established methodology
Supplementary: Any available IceCube data post-2020 through collaboration
data access agreement
3.2 Event Selection
Parameter
Value
Event type
Track-like (μν), downgoing reconstruction (δ=−47° is ~43° from zenith at South Pole — downgoing; upgoing recommendation would apply to KM3NeT/ARCA, not IceCube)
Background estimation: 15,000+ RA scrambles preserving LST distribution;
declination band-matched (±5° around ω Cen).
Systematic uncertainties (nuisance parameters):
Effective area: ±10% (correlated across declination)
Angular resolution: ±0.05° in PSF width
Atmospheric ν flux normalisation: ±5%
Spectral shape: ±0.1 in spectral index
Atmospheric muon contamination: ±15% for downgoing events
Spectral hypotheses: E⁻², E⁻²·⁵, E⁻³·⁰
3.4 Time-Dependent Burst Search
Identical methodology to the KM3NeT/ARCA proposal:
Window sizes: 100 s, 1,000 s, 10,000 s
Background: time-scrambled events preserving LST
Multi-messenger: Fermi-LAT GCN triggers within ±500 s, IACT public alerts
Trials correction: 3 windows × N_LST_bins
Significance threshold: ≥5σ post-trials
3.5 Combined ANTARES+IceCube Analysis
Following Albert et al. (2019, JCAP), a joint likelihood using both datasets improves
sensitivity by approximately a factor of 2 in the δ ≈ −47° declination band. This is the
most powerful IceCube-based constraint achievable with current public data.
4. Expected Outcomes
4.1 Sensitivity Estimate
Based on published IceCube southern-sky sensitivity (Aartsen et al. 2020):
IceCube 10-year E⁻² sensitivity at δ ≈ −47°: ~10⁻¹¹ TeV cm⁻² s⁻¹
Combined ANTARES+IceCube: ~5×10⁻¹² TeV cm⁻² s⁻¹ (improvement ~2×)
For burst scenarios: sensitivity improves as √(Δt/T_total) for concentrated signals
4.2 Null Result Value
First dedicated neutrino limits on ω Cen from the IceCube dataset
Complementary constraint to KM3NeT/ARCA analysis
Combined limits using both datasets at ≥5× improved sensitivity
Burst search: upper limits on kugelblitz event rates at current sensitivity
5. Work Plan
Year
Quarter
Milestone
Deliverable
1
Q1
Sample preparation, quality cuts, IRF validation
Data release note
1
Q2–Q3
ULMA implementation and validation against published results
Mahida, A. D., et al. (2025). ATCA radio limits on ω Cen IMBH. ApJ, 996, 122. arXiv:2512.09649
Babak, S., et al. (2017). LISA EMRI science. Phys. Rev. D, 95, 103012. doi:10.1103/PhysRevD.95.103012 — context for GW complementarity
This is a working draft research proposal produced by the Omega Centauri Society.
IceCube is the complementary instrument for this target; KM3NeT/ARCA is the primary
recommended instrument. Researchers with IceCube collaboration membership and data access
agreements are encouraged to build on this document. The null hypothesis (gas-starved
quiescent IMBH) is the most parsimonious explanation for OC's electromagnetic silence and
should be the primary framing for any funding application.